Recent cotton prices have started to rise strongly

Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton ** main varieties CF205 cumulative increase in January this year reached 3.70%, although the gains are not large, but the performance in the bulk of agricultural products is eye-catching. As for the increase in the price of cotton, analysts believe it is a seasonal performance. Affected by the state's purchasing and storage and the downturn in the apparel industry, the downside and upside of the cotton price in 2012 will be basically determined. The overall trend will be the fluctuation of the box.

In February, CF205 declined softly on the morning of February 1 and February 2. Industry insiders pointed out that cotton prices are expected to rebound as apparel and textile companies start orders in succession.

As for the price increase of cotton in the past month, Wang Qianjin, an analyst at China's No. 1 textile network, believes that there are generally the following factors. First, the price of cotton has been fully adjusted in 2011, and cotton prices have been reduced by about 50%. In the past six months, the price of cotton fluctuates around 20,000 yuan per ton, which proves that the bottom of the cotton price has been formed and the price of cotton is falling.

Another main factor supporting cotton prices is the country’s open acquisition of cotton. It is estimated that the country has acquired more than 2.5 million tons of cotton. China’s cotton production in 2011 was about 7.3 million tons, and the proportion of cotton purchasing and storage to total cotton production is relatively large. And these cotton stocks will not be put into the market in the short term, which means that the supply of cotton will be reduced and it will be able to support cotton prices effectively.

The World Cotton Supply and Demand report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on January 12 this year shows that China’s cotton collection and storage is expected to reach the scale of 12 million bales (1 bag equals 0.218 tons), which is approximately 2.6 million tons. In the /12 marketing year, China's cotton stocks will reach 3.713 million tons, ranking first in the world. It accounts for 29.2% of global cotton stocks.

On the other hand, the price of cotton dropped sharply in 2011. The benefits of cotton cultivation have been greatly reduced, and the enthusiasm of farmers for planting cotton has been frustrated. It is expected that when cotton is planted in March-April this year, the planting area will be reduced by about 10%. If cotton yields remain unchanged, it means that China Cotton production will be reduced by 700,000-800,000 tons.

The superposition of the above two factors has become the main driving force for the recent strong increase in cotton prices. A person in charge of a textile company believes that the price of cotton and other textile raw materials has shown some regularity over the years, that is, some time before the Spring Festival, due to the company's year-end inventory, many companies will choose to clear the goods, cotton prices will be There has been a certain decline. After the Spring Festival period, especially when textile enterprises are started one after another, the price of cotton will show a wave of rising prices. This is a seasonal performance and does not mean that the supply and demand situation of cotton has undergone fundamental changes.