In 2011, domestic cotton spot prices and ** prices entered a long-term bearish path after hitting a record high in the first quarter and reached the “temporary bottom†of 19,800 yuan/ton announced in the national temporary reserve reserve plan in mid-to-late October. Shocking bottoming stage.
It is estimated that global cotton production in 2011/12 will reach 123.4 million bales, or 27.14 million tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and will hit a record high; global consumption is expected to be only 24.49 million tons, down 2.48% year-on-year, and production exceeds consumption by about 265.8 10,000 tons, the pattern of supply and demand is loose.
Chinese textile companies are faced with dual pressures of high inventory and high operating costs. In addition, the pressure of appreciation has weakened the international competitiveness of textiles in China, and the demand for textile cotton has been sluggish. With the combined effects of oversupply, rising planting costs, and national purchasing and storage, it is expected that the 2011/12 cotton price will fluctuate from 19,500 yuan/ton to 25,500 yuan/ton.
Due to the significant increase in materials and labor costs, the current cotton planting income does not have a comparative advantage over land-grabbing crops, and the state's purchasing and storage policies will ease the excessively loose cotton circulation situation while deciding the bottom of policies and protecting the interests of cotton farmers. The price of cotton is supported, and various factors indicate that the price of storage and storage in 2011/12 will rise slightly.
Weak demand for stable production of national cotton in the new year From October 20 to November 1st, 2011, the national cotton market monitoring system investigated the cotton production in China in 2011, involving 15 cotton-growing provinces (autonomous regions) and 87 cotton-growing counties. (City, Mission Group).
The results showed that although the Yellow River and Yangtze River areas had more rainfall after August, which had a certain negative impact on the growth of cotton, the overall growth of cotton in China remained a normal preference.
Expansion is expected to significantly increase production in the new year is expected to strongly 2011 annual national cotton acreage 79.417 million mu, an increase of 8.5% over the previous year; average yield 95 kg/mu, an increase of 11.6%; total output 7.548 million tons, an increase of 21.2%.
Looking back at cotton acreage and yield data for the past years, China’s cotton yield has remained stable for the past five years, and the planting area has a linear positive correlation with yield, and the increase and decrease are extremely synchronized. It is expected that the cotton planting area and output in 2011/12 will enter historical highs.
The US Department of Agriculture’s latest outlook report stated that China's cotton harvest area in 2011/12 is expected to increase by 7% to 5.5 million hectares, and cotton production will reach 33.5 million bales, which is 27% of global production, reaching a record high.
China's cotton imports, or to the second highest in history As the world's largest cotton importer, China's 2011/12 cotton imports are expected to increase 29% year-on-year to 15.5 million bales, reaching the record high.
Currently, the U.S. import price for upland cotton imports is very competitive with domestic cotton prices, and it is expected that the favorable domestic and foreign price parity relationship will continue in the current crop year and become another important factor that stimulates cotton imports in addition to policy factors.
Domestic cotton consumption is sluggish, inventory will increase Before the financial crisis of 2008, the development of China's textile industry was smooth, but the financial crisis caused economic growth to decline, and the textile industry became one of the industries that bear the brunt of it.
The winter of the textile industry has arrived and this "winter" is particularly cold. In 2011, after experiencing soaring prices of cotton, textile companies face enormous cost pressures on the one hand and worry about sales on the other.
From January to September 2011, the total profit of the textile industry in China was 1900.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%, of which the third quarter was 37.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and the growth rate dropped by 22.1 percentage points from the first half. From July to September last year, the growth rates were 23.4%, 25.5%, and 10.1%, respectively, and the growth rate was declining.
In the first three quarters of 2011, China’s cotton consumption was extremely depressed, and large, medium, and small-scale textile companies all underwent different degrees of pressure.
The textile industry's prosperity index in the four quarters of 2011 gradually declined. By the fourth quarter of this year, the index has dropped sharply to 111.3 from the highest level of 128.9 in the fourth quarter of last year.
The US Department of Agriculture’s cotton outlook report for December last year pointed out that China’s consumption in 2011/12 is expected to be 45 million bales, down 2% year-on-year.
It is expected that the national cotton ending stocks will reach 15.55 million bales in 2011/12, and the stock consumption ratio will be 34.5%, which is the highest point in the past three years.
Lincang acquisition effectively supported cotton prices. The eight ministries and commissions of the National Development and Reform Commission announced the temporary storage plan at the end of March last year. The price limit acquisition was made between September 1, 2011 and March 31, 2012. The purchase price was standard grade lint to warehouse. The price is 19,800 yuan per ton.
From September 8, 2011, when the China Cotton Price Index's 328-level quotation was lower than the temporary purchase and storage price for five consecutive days, the temporary cotton collection and storage work for 2011 was formally initiated. Cotton enterprises have high enthusiasm for delivery. As of December 5, 2011, the accumulative turnover of cotton in 2011 was 1,575,920 tons, of which 1072,280 tons were sold in Xinjiang and 503,640 tons in the Mainland.
On November 23, 2011, China Chumian Corporation released the “Announcement on Guaranteeing Storage Capacity and Ensuring Open Storage and Storageâ€, again stressing open and unlimited storage at a fixed price, with a storage capacity of 4.1 million tons. It accounts for 55% of the estimated total production of cotton for the year. It has opened 65 storage points and has a storage capacity of 2.7 million tons.
According to Jinqiao Textile Network News, the Sino-Canadian Cotton Company has arranged for the Xinjiang cotton that has already been deposited to be transferred to the mainland in succession, and has again publicly leased reserve cotton reserves in some centralized production areas to tap the socially available warehouse resources. The above measures have stabilized market confidence and built a strong “policy bottom†support at 19,800 yuan/ton.
As a benefit agriculture policy to protect the interests of cotton farmers, it is expected that the policy of purchase and storage will be continued in the next crop year, and the price of storage and storage will rise slightly. The purchase of the city will build a more effective bottom price.
The increase in planting costs has significantly shifted the replacement price spread to a reasonable level. The compilation data of national agricultural product cost-benefit data shows that in 2004, the labor cost per hectare of cotton planted was 354.78 yuan, and then it gradually increased gradually year by year. By 2010, it was 728.25 yuan.
According to the average growth rate, the cotton planting labor costs in 2011 will reach a record high of 800 yuan/mu.
In addition, the cost of the agricultural film, pesticides, seeds, fertilizers, and other substances and services needed to grow cotton have increased steadily since 2009. In 2010, the total cost of materials and services reached 419.89 yuan/mu. It is expected that this will be 2011/12. The cost will increase to about RMB 450/mu.
The staff of the Cotton Association of Dezhou City, Shandong Province, surveyed cotton planting costs. The results showed that due to the year-on-year increase in prices of fertilizers and other agricultural products, the cotton planting cost per mu in 2011 increased by about 60 yuan from the previous year.
According to the survey, the fertilizer prices in the spring of 2011 increased by about 20% compared with the same period of last year, and the fertilizer price during summer cotton dressing increased by about 30% compared with the same period of last year. In addition, the costs of agricultural films and pesticides increased slightly, and the direct cost for cotton cultivation was about 456 yuan/mu (not Including labor costs, rental fees, and the cost of picking up cotton for employees, an increase of 61 yuan over 2010. Basic fertilizer 108 yuan, machine farming 35 yuan, seed 60 yuan, machine broadcast 15 yuan, film 23 yuan, pesticide 70 yuan, top dressing 115 yuan, irrigation 30 yuan.
The income from planting cotton has no competitive advantage over its competing crops such as corn and soybeans. It also has a long production cycle, many links, low mechanization work rates, labor and labor environment, and the same amount of labor in the cotton seed, tube and harvest process. The remuneration received has been difficult to catch up with the income of migrant workers, cotton prices hovering at the low of 20,000 yuan/ton, the cotton farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting can hardly improve. From this we can see that the income of cotton farmers is still microblogging.
The chemical fiber products closely related to cotton substitution are mainly polyester fibers and viscose fibers. When the cotton price hit a record high in mid-February 2011, the price of cotton was 15,000 yuan/ton higher than that of polyester fibers, and the substitution effect of polyester fibers became apparent.
In the first quarter of 2011, domestic polyester fiber production reached a high of nearly two years, with a monthly output of 24.68 tons. From January to November 2011, China’s chemical fiber production totaled 30.894 million tons, an increase of 2.67 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 9.84%.
With cotton prices gradually lower, the gap between cotton prices and polyester fiber prices has also converged accordingly. Since March last year, most textile companies have been stuck in the de-stocking crisis, demand for cotton and polyester has dropped sharply, and polyester fiber production In April 2011, it reached a record low of 7.98 tons.
At present, the spread between cotton and polyester has narrowed to below 10,000 yuan, back to a reasonable level, and the substitution effect has weakened. The downstream demand for both products has been at a low point.
In summary, China's cotton imports have increased significantly, making up for the shortfall in the production and demand gap; the textile industry has suffered the coldest “winter†in ten years, and exports have been sluggish, domestic demand growth has been limited, labor costs have increased substantially, and exchange rates have increased. These factors make “Made in China†The advantage is no longer: Europe and the United States purchasers have moved to more “cheap†markets in Southeast Asia and other countries. Orders in the textile and apparel industry are not booming. SMEs are undergoing an accelerated transition. Annual output of new crops is stable but demand is weak and variables are large. China’s cotton supply and demand are relatively loose.
Based on the analysis of the cotton planting cost, we expect that the 2011/12 Chinese cotton price will fluctuate from 19500 to 25500, and it is difficult to see a trend of unilateral rise and fall. From April to May, the planting area is expected to escalate during the busy season or during the peak season. The new cotton will be listed after September and supply pressure will suppress cotton prices.
In addition to the macroeconomic environment, the industry should also focus on the downstream textile and apparel demand changes, imports to Hong Kong and whether the import quota is increased and other influencing factors.
2011 cotton price roller coaster 2011 China's cotton prices out of the trend of decline in the market, with the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton ** index for statistical analysis, the cotton price fell nearly 13,500 yuan / ton throughout the year, a drop of up to 40.52%.
Under the general tendency of a general downward trend, the trend of the Zheng cotton price index can be divided into three stages: The first stage is from the beginning of the year to mid-February, that is, around the Spring Festival. This stage of the Zheng Cotton Revolution continues the tail of the bull market in 2010. Chonggao hit a year high of 33,601, approaching a historic high in 2010. This stage of the market should be defined as the continuation of the bullish market in 2010; the second phase of the market, which lasts for nearly 8 months, is the main decline in 2011's decline. Inspur and Zhengmian prices all the way down from the mid-February highs and fell to the national reserve price of 19,800 yuan/ton on October 21, a drop of more than 40%; the third phase was the national temporary reserve plan of 19,800 yuan since late October. / Tonnes of purchase prices, "policy bottom" under the support of a narrow range of volatility market, on November 25 once again below the 20,000 yuan / ton mark after a month or so, although the price of Zheng cotton ** rose around 800 yuan, However, the whole has not shaken off at the bottom.
A comparative analysis of China's cotton price index 328 with a representative spot price showed that the 328 index in the first quarter was weaker than that of Zhengmian. The fluctuation was relatively flat. It reached the high point in the middle of March and was one month later than Zhengmian. about. The negative basis at this stage has become the norm, and the low point of the basis has reached -5000.
Subsequently, the correlation between the cotton price and the spot price increased, and the basis deviation oscillated. After the middle of July, the basis difference continued to run below the 0-axis. In October, since the shocking bottoming market, the basis for fluctuations in the range of fluctuations has been operating in the -1600 to 0-axis range. The cotton spot price and the price of ** have entered the bottom area simultaneously, ending the 2011 market in the bottom of the shock.
It is estimated that global cotton production in 2011/12 will reach 123.4 million bales, or 27.14 million tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and will hit a record high; global consumption is expected to be only 24.49 million tons, down 2.48% year-on-year, and production exceeds consumption by about 265.8 10,000 tons, the pattern of supply and demand is loose.
Chinese textile companies are faced with dual pressures of high inventory and high operating costs. In addition, the pressure of appreciation has weakened the international competitiveness of textiles in China, and the demand for textile cotton has been sluggish. With the combined effects of oversupply, rising planting costs, and national purchasing and storage, it is expected that the 2011/12 cotton price will fluctuate from 19,500 yuan/ton to 25,500 yuan/ton.
Due to the significant increase in materials and labor costs, the current cotton planting income does not have a comparative advantage over land-grabbing crops, and the state's purchasing and storage policies will ease the excessively loose cotton circulation situation while deciding the bottom of policies and protecting the interests of cotton farmers. The price of cotton is supported, and various factors indicate that the price of storage and storage in 2011/12 will rise slightly.
Weak demand for stable production of national cotton in the new year From October 20 to November 1st, 2011, the national cotton market monitoring system investigated the cotton production in China in 2011, involving 15 cotton-growing provinces (autonomous regions) and 87 cotton-growing counties. (City, Mission Group).
The results showed that although the Yellow River and Yangtze River areas had more rainfall after August, which had a certain negative impact on the growth of cotton, the overall growth of cotton in China remained a normal preference.
Expansion is expected to significantly increase production in the new year is expected to strongly 2011 annual national cotton acreage 79.417 million mu, an increase of 8.5% over the previous year; average yield 95 kg/mu, an increase of 11.6%; total output 7.548 million tons, an increase of 21.2%.
Looking back at cotton acreage and yield data for the past years, China’s cotton yield has remained stable for the past five years, and the planting area has a linear positive correlation with yield, and the increase and decrease are extremely synchronized. It is expected that the cotton planting area and output in 2011/12 will enter historical highs.
The US Department of Agriculture’s latest outlook report stated that China's cotton harvest area in 2011/12 is expected to increase by 7% to 5.5 million hectares, and cotton production will reach 33.5 million bales, which is 27% of global production, reaching a record high.
China's cotton imports, or to the second highest in history As the world's largest cotton importer, China's 2011/12 cotton imports are expected to increase 29% year-on-year to 15.5 million bales, reaching the record high.
Currently, the U.S. import price for upland cotton imports is very competitive with domestic cotton prices, and it is expected that the favorable domestic and foreign price parity relationship will continue in the current crop year and become another important factor that stimulates cotton imports in addition to policy factors.
Domestic cotton consumption is sluggish, inventory will increase Before the financial crisis of 2008, the development of China's textile industry was smooth, but the financial crisis caused economic growth to decline, and the textile industry became one of the industries that bear the brunt of it.
The winter of the textile industry has arrived and this "winter" is particularly cold. In 2011, after experiencing soaring prices of cotton, textile companies face enormous cost pressures on the one hand and worry about sales on the other.
From January to September 2011, the total profit of the textile industry in China was 1900.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%, of which the third quarter was 37.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and the growth rate dropped by 22.1 percentage points from the first half. From July to September last year, the growth rates were 23.4%, 25.5%, and 10.1%, respectively, and the growth rate was declining.
In the first three quarters of 2011, China’s cotton consumption was extremely depressed, and large, medium, and small-scale textile companies all underwent different degrees of pressure.
The textile industry's prosperity index in the four quarters of 2011 gradually declined. By the fourth quarter of this year, the index has dropped sharply to 111.3 from the highest level of 128.9 in the fourth quarter of last year.
The US Department of Agriculture’s cotton outlook report for December last year pointed out that China’s consumption in 2011/12 is expected to be 45 million bales, down 2% year-on-year.
It is expected that the national cotton ending stocks will reach 15.55 million bales in 2011/12, and the stock consumption ratio will be 34.5%, which is the highest point in the past three years.
Lincang acquisition effectively supported cotton prices. The eight ministries and commissions of the National Development and Reform Commission announced the temporary storage plan at the end of March last year. The price limit acquisition was made between September 1, 2011 and March 31, 2012. The purchase price was standard grade lint to warehouse. The price is 19,800 yuan per ton.
From September 8, 2011, when the China Cotton Price Index's 328-level quotation was lower than the temporary purchase and storage price for five consecutive days, the temporary cotton collection and storage work for 2011 was formally initiated. Cotton enterprises have high enthusiasm for delivery. As of December 5, 2011, the accumulative turnover of cotton in 2011 was 1,575,920 tons, of which 1072,280 tons were sold in Xinjiang and 503,640 tons in the Mainland.
On November 23, 2011, China Chumian Corporation released the “Announcement on Guaranteeing Storage Capacity and Ensuring Open Storage and Storageâ€, again stressing open and unlimited storage at a fixed price, with a storage capacity of 4.1 million tons. It accounts for 55% of the estimated total production of cotton for the year. It has opened 65 storage points and has a storage capacity of 2.7 million tons.
According to Jinqiao Textile Network News, the Sino-Canadian Cotton Company has arranged for the Xinjiang cotton that has already been deposited to be transferred to the mainland in succession, and has again publicly leased reserve cotton reserves in some centralized production areas to tap the socially available warehouse resources. The above measures have stabilized market confidence and built a strong “policy bottom†support at 19,800 yuan/ton.
As a benefit agriculture policy to protect the interests of cotton farmers, it is expected that the policy of purchase and storage will be continued in the next crop year, and the price of storage and storage will rise slightly. The purchase of the city will build a more effective bottom price.
The increase in planting costs has significantly shifted the replacement price spread to a reasonable level. The compilation data of national agricultural product cost-benefit data shows that in 2004, the labor cost per hectare of cotton planted was 354.78 yuan, and then it gradually increased gradually year by year. By 2010, it was 728.25 yuan.
According to the average growth rate, the cotton planting labor costs in 2011 will reach a record high of 800 yuan/mu.
In addition, the cost of the agricultural film, pesticides, seeds, fertilizers, and other substances and services needed to grow cotton have increased steadily since 2009. In 2010, the total cost of materials and services reached 419.89 yuan/mu. It is expected that this will be 2011/12. The cost will increase to about RMB 450/mu.
The staff of the Cotton Association of Dezhou City, Shandong Province, surveyed cotton planting costs. The results showed that due to the year-on-year increase in prices of fertilizers and other agricultural products, the cotton planting cost per mu in 2011 increased by about 60 yuan from the previous year.
According to the survey, the fertilizer prices in the spring of 2011 increased by about 20% compared with the same period of last year, and the fertilizer price during summer cotton dressing increased by about 30% compared with the same period of last year. In addition, the costs of agricultural films and pesticides increased slightly, and the direct cost for cotton cultivation was about 456 yuan/mu (not Including labor costs, rental fees, and the cost of picking up cotton for employees, an increase of 61 yuan over 2010. Basic fertilizer 108 yuan, machine farming 35 yuan, seed 60 yuan, machine broadcast 15 yuan, film 23 yuan, pesticide 70 yuan, top dressing 115 yuan, irrigation 30 yuan.
The income from planting cotton has no competitive advantage over its competing crops such as corn and soybeans. It also has a long production cycle, many links, low mechanization work rates, labor and labor environment, and the same amount of labor in the cotton seed, tube and harvest process. The remuneration received has been difficult to catch up with the income of migrant workers, cotton prices hovering at the low of 20,000 yuan/ton, the cotton farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting can hardly improve. From this we can see that the income of cotton farmers is still microblogging.
The chemical fiber products closely related to cotton substitution are mainly polyester fibers and viscose fibers. When the cotton price hit a record high in mid-February 2011, the price of cotton was 15,000 yuan/ton higher than that of polyester fibers, and the substitution effect of polyester fibers became apparent.
In the first quarter of 2011, domestic polyester fiber production reached a high of nearly two years, with a monthly output of 24.68 tons. From January to November 2011, China’s chemical fiber production totaled 30.894 million tons, an increase of 2.67 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 9.84%.
With cotton prices gradually lower, the gap between cotton prices and polyester fiber prices has also converged accordingly. Since March last year, most textile companies have been stuck in the de-stocking crisis, demand for cotton and polyester has dropped sharply, and polyester fiber production In April 2011, it reached a record low of 7.98 tons.
At present, the spread between cotton and polyester has narrowed to below 10,000 yuan, back to a reasonable level, and the substitution effect has weakened. The downstream demand for both products has been at a low point.
In summary, China's cotton imports have increased significantly, making up for the shortfall in the production and demand gap; the textile industry has suffered the coldest “winter†in ten years, and exports have been sluggish, domestic demand growth has been limited, labor costs have increased substantially, and exchange rates have increased. These factors make “Made in China†The advantage is no longer: Europe and the United States purchasers have moved to more “cheap†markets in Southeast Asia and other countries. Orders in the textile and apparel industry are not booming. SMEs are undergoing an accelerated transition. Annual output of new crops is stable but demand is weak and variables are large. China’s cotton supply and demand are relatively loose.
Based on the analysis of the cotton planting cost, we expect that the 2011/12 Chinese cotton price will fluctuate from 19500 to 25500, and it is difficult to see a trend of unilateral rise and fall. From April to May, the planting area is expected to escalate during the busy season or during the peak season. The new cotton will be listed after September and supply pressure will suppress cotton prices.
In addition to the macroeconomic environment, the industry should also focus on the downstream textile and apparel demand changes, imports to Hong Kong and whether the import quota is increased and other influencing factors.
2011 cotton price roller coaster 2011 China's cotton prices out of the trend of decline in the market, with the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton ** index for statistical analysis, the cotton price fell nearly 13,500 yuan / ton throughout the year, a drop of up to 40.52%.
Under the general tendency of a general downward trend, the trend of the Zheng cotton price index can be divided into three stages: The first stage is from the beginning of the year to mid-February, that is, around the Spring Festival. This stage of the Zheng Cotton Revolution continues the tail of the bull market in 2010. Chonggao hit a year high of 33,601, approaching a historic high in 2010. This stage of the market should be defined as the continuation of the bullish market in 2010; the second phase of the market, which lasts for nearly 8 months, is the main decline in 2011's decline. Inspur and Zhengmian prices all the way down from the mid-February highs and fell to the national reserve price of 19,800 yuan/ton on October 21, a drop of more than 40%; the third phase was the national temporary reserve plan of 19,800 yuan since late October. / Tonnes of purchase prices, "policy bottom" under the support of a narrow range of volatility market, on November 25 once again below the 20,000 yuan / ton mark after a month or so, although the price of Zheng cotton ** rose around 800 yuan, However, the whole has not shaken off at the bottom.
A comparative analysis of China's cotton price index 328 with a representative spot price showed that the 328 index in the first quarter was weaker than that of Zhengmian. The fluctuation was relatively flat. It reached the high point in the middle of March and was one month later than Zhengmian. about. The negative basis at this stage has become the norm, and the low point of the basis has reached -5000.
Subsequently, the correlation between the cotton price and the spot price increased, and the basis deviation oscillated. After the middle of July, the basis difference continued to run below the 0-axis. In October, since the shocking bottoming market, the basis for fluctuations in the range of fluctuations has been operating in the -1600 to 0-axis range. The cotton spot price and the price of ** have entered the bottom area simultaneously, ending the 2011 market in the bottom of the shock.
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