Our reporter Zhang Qinfeng
On October 11, the spot market was stable, and the main contract of treasury bonds futures fell slightly. Although the bond market stabilized at the beginning of the week, the cautious wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. Market participants said that before the release of macro data in September and the third quarter, market participants tend to wait for fundamental guidance, and it is difficult to achieve large-scale market in the short-term, but the capital fabric can continue to improve, the upward risk of yield is also small, and the market may maintain Shock the main tone.
Bond market fluctuates within a narrow range
On the 11th, the current bond market was stable. The 10-year Treasury bond active coupon 170018 days was repeated at 3.65%, which was the same as the previous closing price. The 170010 transaction was at 3.66%, slightly higher than the previous closing price; the 10-year national debt was 170215. 4.22% turnover to 4.23%, up nearly 1BP, 170210 turnover at 4.34%, up nearly 1BP.
The main contract of government bond futures closed slightly lower. On the 11th, the 10-year bond contract T1712 closed at 94.885 yuan, down 0.06 yuan or 0.06%. The 5-year main contract TF1712 closed at 97.410 yuan, down 0.05 yuan or 0.05%.
Although it still maintains a weak shock, compared with the performance at the beginning of the week, the bond market has stabilized in the past two days, mainly due to the improvement of short-term liquidity. At the beginning of this week, the market funds were extremely tight. The institutional analysis may be due to the mid-term repurchase of financing for repurchase, the routine deposit and repayment, and the central bank’s open market net return. However, as the central bank restarted the reverse repurchase operation, The repurchase of the repurchase and the payment of the disturbances subsided, and the cash returned to the banking system, and the funds gradually recovered in the past two days.
Short-term funding changes slightly favorable
Since the third quarter, the bond market has been in a sideways position, which is related to the unpredictable expectations of the economy, regulation and policy. Under the situation of economic resilience, inertia of regulation, and partial policy neutrality, liquidity fluctuations have become the main source of short-term fluctuations in the bond market. In the short term, changes in funding may be slightly beneficial to the bond market.
When the short-term funding is expected to continue to improve, at least until 15 days ago, the problem should be small. First, there is financial release at the end of September, and there is cash back after the holiday, which all support short-term liquidity. Second, this Friday (October 13th), the first MLF will expire in the month. Referring to the previous situation, it is expected that the central bank will make a one-time full amount of MLF (439.5 billion yuan) due for the full month. Do, because only 20 billion yuan reverse repurchase expires on that day, the MLF operation will generate more incremental liquidity on the same day, plus the monthly tax period is lower, the liquidity disturbance factor in the first half of the month is not much, help To further improve the short-term liquidity situation.
However, analysts believe that before the disclosure of economic data, it may still be difficult for all parties in the market to form a joint force. The bond market is difficult to achieve a large-scale market. According to the research report of CICC, economic data is likely to exceed expectations in the end of the year. Whether it will reappear in September will still be questionable. The PMI performed well in September, and the industrial added value is expected to rebound slightly. The Zhongtai Securities Research Report also said that the probability of economic data continuing to stabilize in September is high, or that the bond is more emotionally suppressed.
Analysts pointed out that in the short-term, if the bond market rises, it should be squandered, waiting for the fundamentals to be clear, and be wary of the tax payment in the second half of the month, which may cause liquidity tightening, which may impact the bond market. However, if short-term liquidity fluctuations cause interest rates to rise significantly and re-approach the previous highs, consider turning to the attack. In the low-volatility environment of the bond market, the contribution of alternative products such as convertible bonds and ABS to portfolio income should not be ignored.
(Editor: Ji Liya HN003)
With 3 factories, options for material fabrics are from yarn size 40s to 120s, thread count ranges from 200TC to 1000TC and patterns include plain, satIn, satin stripe, grid and jacquard for you to choose.
Our main products are:
1. Hotel bedding fabrics
2. Hotel duvet covers, bed/flat sheets, fitted sheets, pillowcases
3. Hotel duvets, pillows, mattress protectors, mattress toppers
4. Face towels, hand towels, bath towels, bath mats, slippers and hotel bathrobes
Hotel Towels,Hotel Face Towel ,Cotton towels
Shaanxi Xiaoze Textile Co., Ltd. , https://www.xtsxxzth.com