The inflection point of Lewis, the turning point of surplus labor to shortage, means that in the process of industrialization, with the gradual transfer of rural surplus labor to non-agricultural industries, the rural surplus labor force has gradually decreased and eventually dried up. Lewis, a Nobel Prize winner in economics, proposed in the population flow model.
Missing people! The Dongguan model has a red light on February 16. After the rain, Dongguan, Guangdong, has a dense mist.
Already coming to the Lantern Festival, the various townships where the manufacturing industry is developed are still deserted. There are quite a few canteens and fast food shops next to the factory. The gates are closed and there are few pedestrians on the streets.
Visits to various townships in Dongguan for many days, the enthusiasm of the recruiters and the coolness of the workers is a vivid portrayal of the status quo. The reporter saw Luming Road, a heavy river community in Qingxi Town, which was gathered at the Hardware Factory. It was found that each factory had its own special recruitment advertisement, but even the inquirers could not expect to come.
Once brought together from Dongguan, the country's labor force, workers are decreasing year by year. The official figures in Dongguan in 2007 showed that there were 12 million migrant workers, which also became the peak “song†and there was no official data released thereafter.
Many senior executives and labor market experts interviewed admit that the turning point of Lewis, which has turned China's industrial labor surplus into a shortfall, has already been formed, but the OEM companies have no alternative. “There is absolutely no way but to find other outlets.†He Jianchen, owner of a clothing factory in Dalang Town, Dongguan, was pessimistic.
Wages are the central contradiction in the shortage of employment. In the Zhitong Talent Market in Dongguan, the young man of Hunan Yongzhou who was looking for a job said: “No one wants to do a monthly salary of less than 2,000 yuan.†He Jianchen, the boss, said, “Wages are rising year after year. Workers are not satisfied and companies are already unhappy. Heavy weight."
More than 10,000 small and medium-sized enterprises in Dongguan are trapped in such contradictions. As such, Dongguan's economic development began to slow down sharply.
The income hasn't risen yet, at the factory gate of Luming Road, Qingxi Town, and Lifeng Hardware Factory. It can be seen in the recruitment advertisement that the current “920 yuan/month†is changed from “770 yuan/month†from next month. At the beginning, the guardian responsible for accepting the candidates may change it to “1100 yuan/monthâ€.
These three figures are the minimum wages for the last four years in Dongguan. The reporter has combed data and found that since 2005, Dongguan has raised the minimum wage five times, and the rate of increase has also been increasing. The first time it has only been raised by 36 yuan, and the latest one has been raised by a maximum of 180 yuan.
More popular in Dongguan is the wage promise: "guaranteed salary of 1,150 yuan / month" or "monthly income of up to 1,500 yuan - 1,800 yuan."
However, most workers did not dare to believe such promises. "Be sure to see clearly that most of the high wages in fact do not leave them in the wrong place. They work overtime for 4 hours a day and they also need to deduct accommodation and food expenses." Liu said.
Standing in front of the corporate publicity column in the Zhitong Talent Market, Liu Quanzhi pointed to the recruitment advertisement of Dongguan Nancheng Baima Rongke Electronic Factory and said: “The average monthly income is 2,000 yuan. To get this income, you must add a lot of classes. And at the bottom of the book, no accommodations are included, and there is less deduction."
In fact, in the “ratings†given by many workers, the treatment of the Baima Rongke electronics factory is already considered to be a middle-ranking one.
In recent years, Dongguan has continuously raised the minimum wage standard. In fact, workers’ income has barely increased. After increasing the guaranteed salary, some factories have increased the number of overtime hours, and some factories are no longer in full board.
When interviewed by this reporter, Cai Xiaomei, senior manager of Dongguan Zhitong Talent Market, also said: “Wage is basically determined by the market. The minimum wage standard is only a minimum guarantee: the first benefit of rising wages should be management, research and development, and technology. The wages of ordinary workers have not really improved as a whole."
The meager price difference between the two years of Dongguan's six-year minimum wage period was interrupted. In 2007, the minimum wage in Dongguan was raised to 720 yuan/month, and the result did not take place. In addition, Dongguan did not raise wages in 2009.
One of the reasons for the increase in wages in 2007 was the opposition of private business owners. In 2009, it was the darkest year in Dongguan's economy. The government also suspended salary increases due to business conditions.
The Dongguan-based companies, which are mainly foundry-based, are continuing to face the pressure of labor costs, as if the unrelenting salary increase has begun to expose the corporate bosses to pessimism.
"Wages will surely increase, and we expect it to rise by 10%," said He Jianchen. "If we go up, we can guarantee that the number of workers that the factory does not stop work." He Jianchen's garment factory has been taking the model of OEM, last year's raw materials rose, plus Every year, 10% - 20% of workers' wages increase, which has made him almost "desperate" in this industry.
“The increasingly slim profits†and “more and more difficult for workers to manage†have caused He Jianchen to find another way out. The factory in Dongguan, where the peak of more than 200 workers is no longer his only business.
Although there are differences in the circumstances of each line, the small and medium-sized factories that make up electronics, garments, shoes, and hardware that occupy Dongguan's foundation are almost identical. On February 16, the newspaper’s largest talent market in Dongguan, Zhitong’s talent market survey found that almost every bank’s “price tag†for ordinary workers is almost the same.
In fact, most workers constantly look for comparisons when they are looking for work, that is, 200-300 yuan/month. In view of Liu's full text, an extra 300 yuan per month may be a deposit that can be brought back to his hometown by the end of this year.
However, most factories spend more money on this, but it is a heavy burden. Sun Yu, a partner of the largest consultancy and management company in the country, has just completed a related survey at the end of last year. He said: “The profits of these foundry factories are already low, and some factory workers have thousands of tens of thousands and the cost of labor increases. It will become a magnification effect. Foundry companies really have no way to significantly increase workers' wages."
The removal of Liu Gong from the outside came to the attention of a “good factoryâ€, but the vast majority of Dongguan did not meet this “standardâ€.
A factory in Qingxi Town, Israel's factory for the production of solar water heaters, has been recruiting for eight days since February 17. “Only four or five people were recruited, all of them were brought by old employees.†said Lu Ling, the director of the plant's marketing department. . After the year, 60% of the factory's original workers did not come back.
“Although the recruitment situation will not be finalized until the Lantern Festival, the boss has noticed that this year may be even worse and began to be anxious.†Lu Ling said, “In the past two days, the factory has sent people to the manpower market and the crowded streets. Recruited."
Liu's condition is that "there is a wage of at least 2,000 yuan per month, and not too much overtime." This is almost the basic requirement for most migrant workers.
Xue Litong, who lived in Dongguan for more than a decade, said: “The number of people coming to Dongguan has become less and less. In recent years, they have been even less. Older people would rather go home and do a little business. Relatively high wages and relatively standardized management in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. "In fact, the level of wages in Dongguan has also been close to the nearby Shenzhen and Guangzhou.
According to the latest statistics from Dongguan Spring Transportation Office, during the Spring Festival holiday, Dongguan sent a total of 3.509 million passengers, but there were only 1.6 million return passengers 11 days after the holiday. Migrant workers are fleeing in large areas, and the ensuing one is the dilemma of economic development.
In the Zhitong Talent Market, which developed bright yellow lights at 11am on the 16th, there have been recruitment companies leaving empty tables and job advertisements to leave early. "There aren't many people coming here. It wouldn't be interesting to wait any longer," said a person in charge of recruiting in a company.
This is the third job fair after the festival in Dongguan's largest talent market. The buzz of the labor market has ceased to exist. Some companies have begun to take the initiative to challenge the candidate: “The prostitute, sit down and chat.â€
Cai Xiaomei believes that the turning point in employment occurred in the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. “The number of migrant workers is much less.†The 2008 financial crisis led to the closure of the factory. Many migrant workers who came home early did not return to Dongguan. In fact, this only ignited the fuse, and the shortage of employment before 2005 had already been revealed.
The shortage of employment in Dongguan coincides with the deceleration time of GDP growth, and the faster the shortage, the faster the deceleration. After the reform and opening up, Dongguan has maintained a GDP growth rate of nearly 20%. Since 2005, Dongguan's economic growth rate has begun to slow down. When the shortage of employment in 2007 was relatively obvious, Dongguan's GDP growth rate has dropped to the lowest point in more than 20 years.
At the beginning of 2009, the Dongguan government set a target of protecting ten, and finally removed the price increase factor, and GDP increased only 5.3%. Last year, GDP grew by 10.3%, and the planned target for this year was 8.5%.
The economic development of Dongguan and the number of migrant workers were mixed together. Because of the drastic drop in the number of people, the public facilities and service industries built in Dongguan several years ago according to the prevailing circumstances may also collapse. In every town in Dongguan, beautiful green belts can be seen everywhere, and only one or two cars are running on the wide high-level highways. On the large city square, there are also people.
After the workers fled, the factory was shaken. According to an interview by our reporter in Dongguan, many bosses have been under severe operating pressure, and the development momentum of the original factories has faded. They have begun to search for projects that make quicker real estate or move the factory away from Dongguan.
According to the latest statistics, the number of Hong Kong and Taiwan companies that have occupied half of the economy in Dongguan in the past two years has been reduced by 5,000. The large number of factories built over several years have also been vacant.
Missing people! The Dongguan model has a red light on February 16. After the rain, Dongguan, Guangdong, has a dense mist.
Already coming to the Lantern Festival, the various townships where the manufacturing industry is developed are still deserted. There are quite a few canteens and fast food shops next to the factory. The gates are closed and there are few pedestrians on the streets.
Visits to various townships in Dongguan for many days, the enthusiasm of the recruiters and the coolness of the workers is a vivid portrayal of the status quo. The reporter saw Luming Road, a heavy river community in Qingxi Town, which was gathered at the Hardware Factory. It was found that each factory had its own special recruitment advertisement, but even the inquirers could not expect to come.
Once brought together from Dongguan, the country's labor force, workers are decreasing year by year. The official figures in Dongguan in 2007 showed that there were 12 million migrant workers, which also became the peak “song†and there was no official data released thereafter.
Many senior executives and labor market experts interviewed admit that the turning point of Lewis, which has turned China's industrial labor surplus into a shortfall, has already been formed, but the OEM companies have no alternative. “There is absolutely no way but to find other outlets.†He Jianchen, owner of a clothing factory in Dalang Town, Dongguan, was pessimistic.
Wages are the central contradiction in the shortage of employment. In the Zhitong Talent Market in Dongguan, the young man of Hunan Yongzhou who was looking for a job said: “No one wants to do a monthly salary of less than 2,000 yuan.†He Jianchen, the boss, said, “Wages are rising year after year. Workers are not satisfied and companies are already unhappy. Heavy weight."
More than 10,000 small and medium-sized enterprises in Dongguan are trapped in such contradictions. As such, Dongguan's economic development began to slow down sharply.
The income hasn't risen yet, at the factory gate of Luming Road, Qingxi Town, and Lifeng Hardware Factory. It can be seen in the recruitment advertisement that the current “920 yuan/month†is changed from “770 yuan/month†from next month. At the beginning, the guardian responsible for accepting the candidates may change it to “1100 yuan/monthâ€.
These three figures are the minimum wages for the last four years in Dongguan. The reporter has combed data and found that since 2005, Dongguan has raised the minimum wage five times, and the rate of increase has also been increasing. The first time it has only been raised by 36 yuan, and the latest one has been raised by a maximum of 180 yuan.
More popular in Dongguan is the wage promise: "guaranteed salary of 1,150 yuan / month" or "monthly income of up to 1,500 yuan - 1,800 yuan."
However, most workers did not dare to believe such promises. "Be sure to see clearly that most of the high wages in fact do not leave them in the wrong place. They work overtime for 4 hours a day and they also need to deduct accommodation and food expenses." Liu said.
Standing in front of the corporate publicity column in the Zhitong Talent Market, Liu Quanzhi pointed to the recruitment advertisement of Dongguan Nancheng Baima Rongke Electronic Factory and said: “The average monthly income is 2,000 yuan. To get this income, you must add a lot of classes. And at the bottom of the book, no accommodations are included, and there is less deduction."
In fact, in the “ratings†given by many workers, the treatment of the Baima Rongke electronics factory is already considered to be a middle-ranking one.
In recent years, Dongguan has continuously raised the minimum wage standard. In fact, workers’ income has barely increased. After increasing the guaranteed salary, some factories have increased the number of overtime hours, and some factories are no longer in full board.
When interviewed by this reporter, Cai Xiaomei, senior manager of Dongguan Zhitong Talent Market, also said: “Wage is basically determined by the market. The minimum wage standard is only a minimum guarantee: the first benefit of rising wages should be management, research and development, and technology. The wages of ordinary workers have not really improved as a whole."
The meager price difference between the two years of Dongguan's six-year minimum wage period was interrupted. In 2007, the minimum wage in Dongguan was raised to 720 yuan/month, and the result did not take place. In addition, Dongguan did not raise wages in 2009.
One of the reasons for the increase in wages in 2007 was the opposition of private business owners. In 2009, it was the darkest year in Dongguan's economy. The government also suspended salary increases due to business conditions.
The Dongguan-based companies, which are mainly foundry-based, are continuing to face the pressure of labor costs, as if the unrelenting salary increase has begun to expose the corporate bosses to pessimism.
"Wages will surely increase, and we expect it to rise by 10%," said He Jianchen. "If we go up, we can guarantee that the number of workers that the factory does not stop work." He Jianchen's garment factory has been taking the model of OEM, last year's raw materials rose, plus Every year, 10% - 20% of workers' wages increase, which has made him almost "desperate" in this industry.
“The increasingly slim profits†and “more and more difficult for workers to manage†have caused He Jianchen to find another way out. The factory in Dongguan, where the peak of more than 200 workers is no longer his only business.
Although there are differences in the circumstances of each line, the small and medium-sized factories that make up electronics, garments, shoes, and hardware that occupy Dongguan's foundation are almost identical. On February 16, the newspaper’s largest talent market in Dongguan, Zhitong’s talent market survey found that almost every bank’s “price tag†for ordinary workers is almost the same.
In fact, most workers constantly look for comparisons when they are looking for work, that is, 200-300 yuan/month. In view of Liu's full text, an extra 300 yuan per month may be a deposit that can be brought back to his hometown by the end of this year.
However, most factories spend more money on this, but it is a heavy burden. Sun Yu, a partner of the largest consultancy and management company in the country, has just completed a related survey at the end of last year. He said: “The profits of these foundry factories are already low, and some factory workers have thousands of tens of thousands and the cost of labor increases. It will become a magnification effect. Foundry companies really have no way to significantly increase workers' wages."
The removal of Liu Gong from the outside came to the attention of a “good factoryâ€, but the vast majority of Dongguan did not meet this “standardâ€.
A factory in Qingxi Town, Israel's factory for the production of solar water heaters, has been recruiting for eight days since February 17. “Only four or five people were recruited, all of them were brought by old employees.†said Lu Ling, the director of the plant's marketing department. . After the year, 60% of the factory's original workers did not come back.
“Although the recruitment situation will not be finalized until the Lantern Festival, the boss has noticed that this year may be even worse and began to be anxious.†Lu Ling said, “In the past two days, the factory has sent people to the manpower market and the crowded streets. Recruited."
Liu's condition is that "there is a wage of at least 2,000 yuan per month, and not too much overtime." This is almost the basic requirement for most migrant workers.
Xue Litong, who lived in Dongguan for more than a decade, said: “The number of people coming to Dongguan has become less and less. In recent years, they have been even less. Older people would rather go home and do a little business. Relatively high wages and relatively standardized management in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. "In fact, the level of wages in Dongguan has also been close to the nearby Shenzhen and Guangzhou.
According to the latest statistics from Dongguan Spring Transportation Office, during the Spring Festival holiday, Dongguan sent a total of 3.509 million passengers, but there were only 1.6 million return passengers 11 days after the holiday. Migrant workers are fleeing in large areas, and the ensuing one is the dilemma of economic development.
In the Zhitong Talent Market, which developed bright yellow lights at 11am on the 16th, there have been recruitment companies leaving empty tables and job advertisements to leave early. "There aren't many people coming here. It wouldn't be interesting to wait any longer," said a person in charge of recruiting in a company.
This is the third job fair after the festival in Dongguan's largest talent market. The buzz of the labor market has ceased to exist. Some companies have begun to take the initiative to challenge the candidate: “The prostitute, sit down and chat.â€
Cai Xiaomei believes that the turning point in employment occurred in the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. “The number of migrant workers is much less.†The 2008 financial crisis led to the closure of the factory. Many migrant workers who came home early did not return to Dongguan. In fact, this only ignited the fuse, and the shortage of employment before 2005 had already been revealed.
The shortage of employment in Dongguan coincides with the deceleration time of GDP growth, and the faster the shortage, the faster the deceleration. After the reform and opening up, Dongguan has maintained a GDP growth rate of nearly 20%. Since 2005, Dongguan's economic growth rate has begun to slow down. When the shortage of employment in 2007 was relatively obvious, Dongguan's GDP growth rate has dropped to the lowest point in more than 20 years.
At the beginning of 2009, the Dongguan government set a target of protecting ten, and finally removed the price increase factor, and GDP increased only 5.3%. Last year, GDP grew by 10.3%, and the planned target for this year was 8.5%.
The economic development of Dongguan and the number of migrant workers were mixed together. Because of the drastic drop in the number of people, the public facilities and service industries built in Dongguan several years ago according to the prevailing circumstances may also collapse. In every town in Dongguan, beautiful green belts can be seen everywhere, and only one or two cars are running on the wide high-level highways. On the large city square, there are also people.
After the workers fled, the factory was shaken. According to an interview by our reporter in Dongguan, many bosses have been under severe operating pressure, and the development momentum of the original factories has faded. They have begun to search for projects that make quicker real estate or move the factory away from Dongguan.
According to the latest statistics, the number of Hong Kong and Taiwan companies that have occupied half of the economy in Dongguan in the past two years has been reduced by 5,000. The large number of factories built over several years have also been vacant.
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