Financial breakfast on July 19: Trump medical reform is frustrated again, paying attention to the data of Meifang City

Huitong.com July 19th - This week, due to the buzzing period, there was no speech from Fed officials. At this time, the focus of the market was on Trump's medical reform and US economic data performance. As a result, Trump's medical reform was again frustrated on Tuesday. Investors began to doubt whether Trump's next tax reform could be implemented smoothly. Next Wednesday (July 19), the US will announce two housing market data, and investors should pay attention to it. At the same time, investors trading crude oil should not ignore the guidance of EIA crude oil inventory data on the short-term trend of oil prices.



Wednesday Preview:

Focus on US housing market data. On Wednesday, the US will announce two housing market data for new housing starts and construction permits. Inflation and retail data released by the US on Friday were weak, plunging the dollar. The real estate market is also the object of close attention of Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen. Yellen said earlier that the real estate market is closely related to the banking industry. Yellen believes that the US real estate market still has systemic risks and should continue to promote reforms. The US real estate market has always been an important investment target for global investors, and its recovery process is affecting. It can be seen that the real estate market data has an important influence on the implementation of the Fed policy, and investors should also pay close attention.

Review on Tuesday:
1 Inflatable and retail data released by the UK did not perform well;
2 Kuwait Oil Manager: Although Nigeria and Libya increased production, OPEC production is still within the target;
3 German Finance Minister: The upward momentum of the European economy is growing;
4 U.S. economic data released on Tuesday was less than expected;
5 US Senate Republicans revoked Obama’s lack of adequate support for health care reform;
6 API crude oil inventories increased more than expected;
7 Bureau of Statistics: China's financial and real estate industry GDP growth slowed in the second quarter;
8 CCTV named Suning to invest in overseas football: holding domestic money to spend money outside the country and suspected of money laundering.

[List of major global markets]

stock market

European stock markets closed lower on Tuesday, with the German DAX 30 index, which accounted for a large proportion of export stocks, close down 1.3% to 12430.39 points, setting the biggest one-day drop since June 29. US stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq rising 0.47% for the eighth consecutive trading day. The economic data released by the United States was less than expected, and Trump’s medical reform bill was blocked, and listed companies’ financial reports were mixed.

futures

The price of gold hit a two-week high on Tuesday, supported by a weaker dollar and increased demand for physical gold. Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday, as Saudi exports fell, demand stabilized the market conditions that were considered to be oversupply partially eased, oil prices fell slightly before the electronic market closed, and API crude oil inventory data unexpectedly increased.

In addition to the above quotes for gold, silver and crude oil, Huitong.com also quotes the Shanghai Gold Exchange for you.

Foreign exchange

The US dollar index hit a 10-month low as confidence in US President Trump's policy plan fell and the hawkish position of overseas central banks was uneasy. The euro hit a high of 1.1583 against the dollar in early May, and analysts pointed out that traders who were short on the euro were forced to cover short positions.

The Australian dollar is the biggest beneficiary of the dollar's decline, after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that its July policy meeting record shows that it is more optimistic about the economic outlook. In addition, onshore renminbi closed at 6.7478 yuan against the US dollar, up 240 points from yesterday's close, and has risen nearly 600 points or more than 0.8% since July 11.

[International Finance News]

[Virtual currency plummeted across the board, and the bitcoin digs out the roller coaster-like feeling.] The price of bitcoin is like a roller coaster ride, and the situation of a sharp rise has made the future of Bitcoin even more confusing. The Morgan Stanley analyst team pointed out in a report released last Wednesday that Bitcoin is actually a typical representative of speculation, and its potential to become a legitimate currency is very limited.

[Inflated and retail data released by the UK is not performing well] The data shows that the UK CPI monthly rate is 0%, expected 0.2%, the previous value is 0.3%; the UK retail price index in June is 0.2%, expected 0.4%, the previous value 0.4%. The unexpected slowdown in inflation data may give the Bank of England a sigh of relief in its policy. The Bank of England has been worried that inflation will exceed 2% in the past, which has caused the central bank to face pressure to raise interest rates.

[Analyst commented on UK inflation and retail data] The UK unexpectedly slowed inflation in June, which caused the Bank of England policymakers to ease concerns about price controls. The CPI year-on-year growth rate fell to 2.6%, the first decline since October. The data weakened the view that a few members thought that they needed to raise interest rates as soon as possible. It also showed that economic growth has cooled down when consumers cut spending.

[Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index is not performing well] The data shows that the Eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index was 35.6, the previous value was 37.7. In addition, Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index was 17.5, expected to be 18.0, and the previous value was 18.60.

[Moody's: If the UK can't reach a Brexit agreement, there may be a recession.] Rating agency Moody's believes that if the UK can't reach a European Union's withdrawal agreement, it will not be good for some UK issuers' credit ratings. If the agreement cannot be reached, the UK may experience a slowdown or even a recession, with unemployment and inflation rising. It is still believed that the UK and the EU will eventually be able to reach an agreement covering many, but not all, trade agreements.

[Knight of Kuwait: Although Nigeria and Libya increase production, OPEC production is still within the target] Kuwait Oil Minister said that it is too early to expand the production scale or set the upper limit for production in Nigeria and Libya. The crude oil market is expected to be balanced by the end of March 2018. Although Nigeria and Libya have increased production, OPEC production is still within the target of 32.5 million barrels per day.

[German Finance Minister: The upward trend of the European economy is strengthening] German Finance Minister 朔Ibler sent a letter to the lawmakers saying that the European economy is on the rise. European integration remains one of the best ideas of the 20th century, and Eurozone members should continue to reduce debt and make the budget more sustainable. As long as the link between risk and debt still exists, Germany is ready to deepen the integration of the euro zone.

[The US economic data released on Tuesday is less than expected] The data shows that the US import price index in June was -0.2%, expected to be -0.2%; the US July NAHB property market index was 64.0, expected 67.0.

[The US Senate Republicans revoked Obama’s lack of support for medical reform] There are already three Republican senators who oppose the removal of the Obamacare reform bill. Since the Republican Party has 52 seats in the Senate, three Republican senators have opposed the direct withdrawal of Obama's medical reform, and the bill could not be aborted with half a vote. Earlier, Senator Collins said that he opposed the Senate Republican health reform bill and would not vote for the bill; Senator Capito also opposed the abolition of the Obamacare reform law without a replacement.

[Trump: Disappointed with the failure of Republicans to abolish and replace the health care reform bill] US President Trump said that we have heard about the abolition and removal of the Obamacare reform law for the past seven years. For a long time, I have said that if Obama’s medical reform law fails, everyone will agree. We are at a point where we may need to make Obama's medical reform fail. Democrats will turn to support us.

[API crude oil inventories increased more than expected] The data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that the US crude oil inventories increased by 1.63 million barrels in the week ended July 14th, an increase exceeding expectations, which put pressure on oil prices down; however, simultaneously announced Gasoline and refined oil inventories recorded a decline, and the decline exceeded expectations, which limited the decline in oil prices.

[Domestic financial news]

Domestic macro [China's 70 large and medium-sized cities in June increased the sales price of new residential buildings by 10.2% year-on-year.] Statistics released on July 18th by the Statistics Bureau showed that the sales price of new residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China increased by 10.2% year-on-year in June. 10.4%).

[Statistics Bureau: The price of first-tier cities fell in the first quarter] The National Bureau of Statistics explained that the housing price data in June said that in June, under the influence of local real estate regulation and policy, the real estate market of 15 first-line and hot-selling second-tier cities continued to maintain a stable trend.

[In the second quarter, China's financial and real estate industry GDP growth slowed down] Statistics Bureau released the second quarter and first half of GDP preliminary accounting results show that China's second quarter GDP was 208.07 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%. The financial industry's GDP in the second quarter was 1,362.8 billion yuan, up 3.2% year-on-year, and the first quarter was 4.4%. The real estate industry's GDP in the second quarter was 1,325.9 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, and the first quarter was 7.8%.

Domestic stock market [institutional research "contrarian" focus on technology stocks] Recently, small and medium-sized stocks have suffered heavy losses in succession. Some institutions' research routes have been "contrarian" to technology stocks, trying to find out the wrong varieties. The data shows that a total of 92 companies in the two cities disclosed the institutional research records from July 10 to 14, last week, and the electronics industry accounted for the highest proportion.

[The market reappeared V-shaped reversal, cyclical stocks rose strongly] Both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower. The afternoon market rebounded in the cyber security, coal, steel and other sectors, and rebounded higher. The GEM has become the pioneer of today's rebound and took the lead in rebounding.

Domestic property market [Guangdong reduced the cost of land for enterprises, the transfer period has been reduced from 50 years to 20 years] The Guangdong Provincial Department of Land and Resources said on the 17th that it will reduce the industrial land transfer period, and the maximum 50 years prescribed by the state will not exceed 20 in principle. year.

[Beijing-Shanghai housing prices turned down in June, and the third- and fourth-tier cities are nearing an all-round rise.] In June, Beijing and Shanghai's housing prices ushered in an important point – the price of new homes showed a negative growth, while the prices of third- and fourth-tier cities such as Luoyang, Handan and Beihai. The rise was faster, and the month-on-month increase in June led the country.

Domestic industry [New Energy Vehicle National Big Data Alliance was established in Beijing] The new energy vehicle National Big Data Alliance was held in Beijing on the 18th. The alliance is committed to comprehensively promote big data mining analysis, big data application model, big data standardization research, and will co-ordinate Integrate, develop and utilize new energy vehicle data resources to provide high quality data services to governments, businesses and the public.

[The net profit is less than 1%. What is the driving force of the TV industry under pressure? 】 Due to factors such as the sharp increase in panel prices and shrinking TV sales, in the first half of this year, the general profits of China's TV companies declined, and the net profit of the whole industry was estimated to be less than 1%.

[CCTV named Suning to invest in overseas football: holding domestic money to squander overseas and suspected of money laundering] CCTV News 1+1 program focuses on Chinese irrational investment. According to CCTV reporters, "the mainland enterprises took over the foreign loss football team and the Suning Group held foreign football clubs." These institutions have high domestic debt ratios. They take money borrowed from banks and spend money abroad to purchase assets. Money laundering is not excluded. Suspect. ”

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